As the commercial use of China's 3G (3rd
generation) mobile phone technology draws near, the country's
mobile industry is showing stronger enthusiasm than ever.
International telecom manufacturer Nokia
has threatened to withdraw its investment from China. OKWAP,
a newly ratified handset maker announced that it got China's
first 3G license, which has proved to be false.
The recent tumult comes in the wake of Chinese
Minister of Information Industry Wang Xudong's remarks at
the Fortune Forum late last month that "China promises
to provide 3G service by 2008."
Concluding from Wang's remarks that the
government would delay the time for 3G licensing, companies
have pressed the government to push forward China's 3G process.
Who is playing up 3G
Chinese mobile telecom operators are not
necessarily in a hurry to launch 3G services. In China's
booming mobile communication market, they would rather continue
safely making profits in the present environment.
But fixed line operators have a different story. With little
room for expansion, they are eager to enter the profitable
mobile market by taking advantage of 3G.
Prompted by the poor performance in the
domestic market last year, China's homebrand handset makers
also pin their hopes on 3G,in expectation of quick new growth
with the technology.
Government statistics show that this year China's capacity
for mobile phone making has surpassed 500 million sets,
which indicates a much greater supply than demand. Under
such a backdrop,new comers in the industry, like OKWAP,
are eager for the opening of the 3G market.
3 factors determine China's 3G schedule
The reshuffling of China's telecom companies
is one of the important factors in the government's issuing
of 3G licenses, Vice Minister of Information Industry Xi
Guohua said at the Boao Forum for Asia in April.
The ministry set the reshuffling as one
of its major tasks for the year 2005, but no plan of reform
has yet been made, said Xi.
It is the hope of both the Chinese government
and the mobile communication industry to get rid of the
high patent fees in the 3G market. Yet, even TD-SCDMA, China's
homegrown 3G standard, has still to settle the patent issue
through negotiation.
A report from the Telecom Academy under the Ministry of
Information Industry shows that China's Datang Group, a
major proponent of the TD-SCDMA standard, only holds 7 percent
of TD-SCDMA's patent, Nokia 32 percent, Ericsson 23 percent
and Siemens 11 percent.
According to ministry sources, negotiations
with American company Qualcomm, owner of the property rights
of CDMA, have been stagnant for more than a year due to
the high patent fee charged by Qualcomm.
At the Boao Forum for Asia, Xi Guohua said
the high patent fees would lead to a monopoly harmful to
industrial development. He called for multinational companies
to charge lower, more reasonable fees.
The maturity of TD-SCDMA is another key factor determining
China's 3G process. According to the government schedule,
TD-SCDMA will be ready for commercial use in June this year.
The result of the test for commercial use to be published
this September is also expected to have a major influence
over the 3G process.
Expert: rational on 3G
Despite companies' enthusiasm about 3G,
some experts are calling for a more rational attitude toward
the new technology, arguing that 3G is only the evolution
2G, rather than a revolution.
Most people are still unclear about what
3G could bring. The European experience has shown that subscribers
can be much less enthusiastic than the industry expects.
However, some insiders gave bold predictions
that China would have 6.2 million 3G subscribers by 2006,
7.35 million by 2008, and even nearly 200 million by 2010.
The government has tended to cool the 3G
clamor. Yet "the government cares more about 3G than
any one else," said Xi.
China has more than 50 million new mobile
users every year. "The government will issue 3G licenses
when the technology is mature," Xi said.
Source:
Xinhua
